JNIM’s rapid ascent reshapes Sahel security landscape, warn experts

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM),an al-Qaeda affiliate,has emerged as the most powerful militant force in West Africa,now commanding up to 6,000 fighters and staging coordinated,high-impact attacks across the Sahel,experts warn.

According new analysis titled ‘JNIM Expanding Geographic Reach and Staging Coordinated Attacks in the Sahel’,JNIM’s recent assaults in Timbuktu and Boulkessi,killing dozens of soldiers,underscore a dramatic increase in tactical capacity and highlight the growing inability of junta-led governments to counter the insurgency. Published by The Soufan Center (TSC),a New York-based research organization,the study warns that following coups in Mali,Burkina Faso,and Niger,state forces have grown weaker and more fragmented. Their withdrawal from ECOWAS and rejection of international missions like MINUSMA has created a vacuum now filled by jihadist networks and foreign actors such as Russia and Iran.

The security crisis has worsened: in 2024,Burkina Faso ranked the most terrorism-affected country for a second year,and Niger recorded the highest global rise in terrorism deaths. Experts also warn that brutal counterinsurgency campaigns — often targeting Fulani and Tuareg civilians — have fueled jihadist recruitment. In Burkina Faso,state-backed militias like the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) have been implicated in massacres,including the March 2025 killing of over 130 Fulani civilians. Meanwhile,JNIM’s strategy of looting weapons and spreading propaganda is enabling expansion into stable coastal countries like Ghana and Senegal. As U.S. attention wanes and regional coordination collapses,the Sahel risks becoming a new epicenter of global jihadism — one with growing reach and devastating consequences.