Sahara: Will Polisario disband or continue chasing elusive dream?

As the UK has just joined the United States,France,Spain,Germany and several Arab & African countries,recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over its Sahara or supporting the autonomy plan,the future of Algeria-backed Polisario Front of Brahim Ghali seems more uncertain than ever.

For decades,the Polisario has benefited from political and financial support from the Eastern Bloc,from some African countries including the military regimes in Algeria,Libya…,which used the separatist group as a leverage in their hostile schemes against Morocco.

The separatist terrorist group,supported since its creation by the Algerian military regime,is going through a diplomatic,strategic and existential crisis amid a major shift in geopolitical landscape.

Since 2020,a wave of implicit or explicit recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over its Sahara and support for its autonomy plan has gained momentum. Washington,Madrid,Berlin,and then today London,consider Rabat’s proposed autonomy offered for the Sahara under its sovereignty as “serious,credible and realistic”.

Furthermore,the United Kingdom,a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power,unveiled plans to invest in projects in southern Moroccan provinces via the UK Export Finance agency to support the region’s socioeconomic development.

According to some experts,the British backing of Morocco’s territorial integrity strengthens the growing international recognition of the autonomy plan and exacerbates further the isolation of the Polisario and its supporters.

For several years,intelligence services have sounded the alarm over Polisario’s ties with terrorist groups operating in the Sahel and warned against their links with Iranian proxies active in the Middle-East.

To address this threat,fueled by the nexus between separatism and terrorism,lawmakers and influential politicians in the United States and Europe are pushing for the designation of the Polisario a terrorist organization.

Currently,the Polisario benefits from the financial,political,military and logistic support provided by the authoritarian Algerian junta headed by Gen. Said Chengriha. But an isolated movement,without political prospects,risks collapse,while its hawkish hardliners are very likely going to join transnational armed networks!