Global economy under pressure: Morocco navigates between challenges and opportunities

Morocco finds itself strategically positioned between significant challenges and emerging opportunities as global economic tensions reshape international trade patterns. During a comprehensive economic briefing held Monday in Casablanca,Allianz Trade’s Africa and Middle East economist Lluis Dalmau Taulés analyzed how escalating U.S.-China trade conflicts are creating both risks and potential advantages for Moroccan businesses.

The global economic landscape faces unprecedented instability,primarily driven by intensifying commercial tensions between the world’s two largest economies. American trade policies have fundamentally disrupted established economic equilibriums,triggering sudden tariff increases that directly impact exporters’ competitiveness worldwide. A recent Allianz Trade survey of 4,500 exporters across nine countries representing 60% of global GDP reveals that 60% of companies perceive negative impacts from this trade war,while 45% anticipate declining export revenues.

In response to these uncertainties,businesses increasingly adopt “friendshoring” strategies,diversifying commercial partnerships and reorganizing supply chains away from traditional routes. Commercial flows are redirecting toward Europe and Latin America as viable alternatives to established trade corridors.

Despite global turbulence,Morocco demonstrates remarkable economic resilience. Allianz Trade projects steady growth of 3.5% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026,supported by advances in manufacturing,tourism recovery,and agricultural sector revival following several drought-affected years. The kingdom’s limited direct exposure to American markets and fertilizer exemptions from tariff increases provide some protection from immediate trade war impacts.

However,indirect effects through European economic connections remain possible. Morocco could capitalize on redirected commercial flows,though projected gains may decrease to $2.8 billion in 2025 compared to $5 billion in 2024. The closure of the Suez Canal has already increased traffic through Casablanca ports,demonstrating Morocco’s potential as an alternative trade route.

Dalmau Taulés identified significant opportunities in value chain diversification away from China,positioning Morocco as a strategic anchor point for European and American investors. The automotive sector particularly benefits from Chinese companies seeking competitive European market access through Moroccan operations. Enhanced port infrastructure could establish Morocco as a global commercial hub connecting Europe,Africa,Asia,and the Americas.