South Sudan on brink again as fragile peace teeters

South Sudan,the world’s youngest nation,is once again on the edge of civil war,five years after a fragile peace agreement ended its last major conflict.

Tensions have escalated dramatically following the arrest of first vice president Riek Machar in March and renewed fighting between government and opposition forces. According to a new Geopolitical Monitor report and warnings by UN envoy Nicholas Haysom,political and economic collapse in South Sudan looms large. The arrest of Machar,a key signatory to the 2018 peace deal with president Salva Kiir,has sparked fears of “renewed civil conflict and potentially a new proxy conflict in the East-Central Africa region.” Recent clashes near Juba in Central Equatoria,where government troops attacked an opposition cantonment site,have further deepened instability. In response,opposition commander Lt. Gen. Peter Thok Chuol ordered troops to prepare for conflict,raising alarms across the region.

Amid rising tensions,over 300 soldiers from the Machar-led Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) have reportedly defected to the government-controlled South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF),with one commander citing as the reason for the decision “our collective desire for lasting peace,reconciliation,and development in our community and the country.” Yet analysts warn these defections could signal deeper fractures within opposition ranks rather than genuine reconciliation. The United Nations is pushing for urgent mediation and stronger international pressure,but with Sudan’s war spilling southward and Uganda’s influence rising,the regional stakes are growing. Without swift diplomatic intervention,South Sudan may once again descend into a devastating and destabilizing conflict.